Chubasco On My Mind

The water temp has finally scratched and clawed itself above the 60-degree mark for the first time since early last November - so it's been roughly six months of 54- to 58-degree water.

Now it's May and getting dry real quick. With scanty rain and lotsa heat in April, the hills are already crisp. We're locked in at about 8.75 inches for the '07-'08 season, way short of the norm of 13.53 inches for this date. We were on a roll there early on, and then it just stopped. With 9.12 inches for '05-'06, 3.71 inches for '06-'07, and 8.72 inches for '07-08, that's an average of 7.02 inches for the past three years. May's average rain is 0.22 inches, and then June's is only 0.07 inches.

While we sit here half parched, Oklahoma and Arkansas are getting deluged. Up to 15 to 20 inches of rain has fallen in some towns just since April.

The central Sierra's snow pack was 145 percent of normal in January, but now it's down to 94 percent.

May gray is with us here on Monday, May 5. It drizzled pretty good around sunrise - 0.02 inches. It's nothing more than June gloom in May. Strong SW winds up to 45 miles per hour are blowing real estate around in the deserts.

May's hottest days were 101 degrees on May 18, 1978, 99 degrees on May 5, 1960, 96 degrees on May 10, 1996, and 95 degrees on May 19, 1978. The average hi-lo for May 5, is 72-50. Sunrise is at 5:58 a.m. and sunset is at 7:38 p.m. The normal water temp for May 5 is 62 degrees.

Yet another southern hemi pulse arrived last Friday and Saturday. The timing was great as Lowers was four to six feet for the contest, with semi-glassy conditions.

On Friday Andy Burnham nabbed a fat second reefer at Brooks Street, about 7-8 feet, rode it all the way to Oak Street stairs. We've had seven southern hemis already this spring! It's been a very active six weeks since March 20; only three flatdays since then.

Chubasco season is just around the corner, May 15 to Nov. 15. God, I hope this season is more productive than the past five. September 2002 was the last time Brooks Street had second reefers from a Baja swell. It's time, King Neptune. C'mon! It's our turn.

One good sign is that the water temp is already 75-78 degrees on the Pacific side at the tip of Baja. Last year, it was only 65 degrees this date. Remember, hurricanes need at least 80-degree surface temps to stay alive. So if we can get that water to heat up off Baja, the better chance of a chubasco to come roaring into our surf window still a hurricane. If it moves generally to the NW, we're in there. Forward speed is important too - eight to 15 miles per hour is ideal! Over 20, and the storm over takes its own waves.

A roundup of the biggest Baja swells: September 1939 - the granddaddy of 'em all September 1963 - 12-20 ft. September 1966 - Pipline comes to Newport at 15-18 ft. September 1972 - Hurricanes Hyacinth, Inez, JoAnne - 12-15 ft. July 1976 - Hurricane Claudia - wedge 20-25 ft. September 1983 - Hurricane Manuel - 77° water, 90° air, glassy

10-12 ft. El Niño summer August 1984 - Hurricane Estelle, epic Brooks St. contest June 1985 - Hurricane Dolores August 1997 - Hurricane Guillermo, seven-day south swell September 1997 - Hurricanes Linda, Nora September 2002 - Hurricane Hernan

Usually, we'll see 12 to 15 named storms during the Eastern Pacific tropical storm season, and normally fiveto seven will reach hurricane status, with three making at least category three (111-130 miles per hour). The Pacific has never run out the alphabet. We've made it to "W" three times. Back in 2005, the Atlantic not only ran the alphabet, it went six letters into the Greek alphabet!

1972 and 1997 had the most category fivestorms - three each. In 1972 there was Hyacinth, Inez and JoAnne. In 1997 there were Guillermo, Linda and Nora.

That's it for now! See ya next week! Dennis McTighe is serious about the weather! While serving in the US Air Force, he was Meteorologist 61st MAW, Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii from 1969-1972. He has a B.S. in earth sciences from UC San Diego and told us, "I even pulled off a 3.7 GPA back when I still had an attention span." Dennis was a NOAA forecaster from 1979 until November, 1993 - Reported weather and surf and ski conditions on KSBR from '86-'91 - Had a weekly science/ weather segment on Terry Neptune's "Hello Laguna" and has kept a personal daily weather diary everyday since 1957.